Monday, October 29, 2012

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"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution."
--John Adams

While I like to stay away from talking about specific candidates or parties I am going to break my rules for this one just because I have been thinking about this.   I am going to making some broad generalizations of the candidates and parties, realizing they are stereotypes.

I want to take this opportunity about what happens after the election.  What impact will the next four years have on the two party system?   I see three possibilities:

1.            Obama wins – We get four more years of similar policies with expanded government, tax increases, and more regulation
2.            Romney wins and he governs like Bush – We get a slower expanding government and tax cuts.
3.            Romney wins and has a Ryan influence – We get tax cuts, a significant slowing of government growth if not some minor cuts, and a modest reduction in regulation.

As “the 47%” plays heavily into my thoughts of the future I want to speak to how I view them.   The 47% is a demographic description.  I realize it encompasses everyone from the lady screaming how she loves her Obamaphone to my own mother who is on Social Security.   I can assure you between those two the election would be a tie that would have to go to the House of Representatives to be decided.  This is a very broad selection of people.  However, I think it is fair to state that demographic will vote heavily towards a Democratic candidate.   Easily 60%, and maybe much higher, will vote Democratic regardless of the candidate. 

Now how will this play out moving forward under the various scenarios?

Obama wins – In this case the 47% expands, maybe 50 – 52%.  The deficit continues to balloon.  The economy continues to stagnate.     With this larger base it becomes impossible for the Republican Party to win a national election.  They lose in 2016.   The Republican Party has two choices, move to the left or go through dramatic changes to appeal to a broader base.   Because of the establishment not wanting to lose power, it is more likely the Republicans move further left.    This spells the end of the Republican party making way for a third party while the country slips further into debt and the 47% continues to expand. 

Romney wins and follows a Bush path – The 47% expands more slowly, 48-49%.    The deficit slows its growth.  The economy is anemic.   Disenfranchised Republicans say home in 2016 and the Democrats win back the Presidency.  The Republican voters having been fooled once look for an alternative this time.  The Republican Party has failed and the rise of a third party begins.

Romney wins and follows a Paul Ryan path – The 47% will likely stay about the same in the next four years. The economy likely slows for the first two years, as government spending slows, and the Democrats win back at least part of Congress.  There will be a robust rebound in the economy in the third year.  There will be enough done to show some progress in reducing the size of government, and the 2016 election is very close.  The perceived need for a third party dissipates, for now. 

As you can see, I do believe there is a good chance we have a viable third party in the next decade.  Now where will that party come from and what will the party stand for?

In talking to many people I hear the same thing over and over.   I like the fiscal part of the Republican Party, but I don’t like their social stance or they seem to be for big business.   I believe there are huge segments of the Republican Party that like the fiscal part of the Republicans and tolerate these other things.  Further, there is a large piece of the Democratic Party which tolerates their fiscal policy because they like these other parts.  I believe a third party, which would embrace Constitutional government, could attract many of these people.  You would have a fiscally conservative party, which does not believe in hand outs to big business, and a party which kept the government out of your personal life. I believe this party could pull these two significant chunks from the two parties together.  It would attract the Libertarian and Constitution Parties.

A quote from Rand Paul on Sept. 9th--

“You know, what I’ve been talking to leaders in the national Republican Party about is, there’s certain parts of the country we’ve given up on. The whole west coast and New England. What I keep telling them is, maybe we need some libertarian type Republicans who might be popular in those areas. Maybe a less aggressive, more socially tolerant but still fiscally conservative policy that may be more libertarian. Might do better in California, might do better in Oregon and Washington and New England, and I think if we had that it would be a great strategy. Our problem in the presidential election is we’ve given up 150 electoral votes before we even get started.”

Rand Paul is right.  However, we don’t need some minor tweaks of individual candidates that run like Libertarians and then govern like Republicans when they get to Washington.

Where does this party start?  What does the platform look like?  I would suggest we have the beginnings.  Here is the Platform:

1. ELIMINATE EXCESSIVE TAXES - Excessively high taxes are a burden for those exercising their personal liberty to work hard and prosper as afforded by the Constitution. A fiscally responsible government protects the freedom of its citizens to enjoy the fruits of their own labor without interference from a government that has exceeded its necessary size, scope and reach into the lives of its citizens.

“Collecting more taxes than is absolutely necessary is legalized robbery.” --Calvin Coolidge

“A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government.” --Thomas Jefferson

2. ELIMINATE THE NATIONAL DEBT - By implementing fiscally conservative policies at all levels of government, progress can be made toward eliminating the U.S. National Debt. Massive increases in the National Debt have created and continue to create a huge burden for the next generation of Americans, thus imperiling the country’s short-term and long-term economic health and prosperity.

“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” --Abraham Lincoln

“no generation can contract debts greater than may be paid during the course of its own existence.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

3. ELIMINATE DEFICIT SPENDING - All deficit spending must be eliminated immediately. We insist that government representatives at all levels maintain a fiscally responsible budget and balance the books as would be expected of any American business.

 “A penny saved is a penny earned.” --Benjamin Franklin

“Tomorrow, every Fault is to be amended; but that Tomorrow never comes.” --Benjamin Franklin

4. PROTECT FREE MARKETS - America’s free enterprise system allows businesses to thrive as they compete in the open marketplace and strive toward ever better services and products. Allowing free markets to prosper unfettered by government interference is what propelled this country to greatness with an enduring belief in the industriousness and innovations of the populace.

“You cannot build character and courage by taking away a man’s initiative and independence.” --Abraham Lincoln

“The government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” --Ronald Reagan

5. ABIDE BY THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES - The U.S. Constitution is the supreme law of the land and must be adhered to without exception at all levels of government. This includes the Bill of Rights and other Amendments to the U.S. Constitution and their provisions designed to protect states’ rights and individual liberties.

 “The Constitution is the guide which I will never abandon.” --George Washington

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” --Abraham Lincoln

6. PROMOTE CIVIC RESPONSIBILITY - Citizen involvement at the grassroots level allows the voice of the American people to be heard and directs the political behaviors of our representatives at both the local and national level so they, in turn, may be most effective in working to preserve the life, liberty and pursuit of happiness of this country’s citizens.

“The battle, sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave.” --Patrick Henry

“To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.” --Abraham Lincoln
Truth will ultimately prevail where there is pains to bring it to light” --George Washington

“All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.” --Thomas Jefferson

7. REDUCE THE OVERALL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT - A bloated bureaucracy creates wasteful spending that plagues our government. Reducing the overall size, scope and reach of government at both local and national levels will help to eliminate inefficiencies that result in deficit spending which adds to our country’s debt.

 “If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people, under the pretense of taking care of them, they must become happy.” --Samuel Adams, 1802

8. BELIEVE IN THE PEOPLE - The American people, given their guaranteed freedoms, will thrive in a democratic, capitalist environment which allows individuals to strive toward ever greater achievements, innovations and the efficient production of needed and valued goods and services.

“Industry need not wish.” --Benjamin Franklin

“The people will save their government, if the government itself will allow them.” --Abraham Lincoln

9. AVOID THE PITFALLS OF POLITICS - American politics is burdened by big money from lobbyists and special interests with an undue influence on the peoples’ representatives. This Movement is seen as a threat to the entrenched political parties and thus is the continual target of smear campaigns and misrepresentation of its ideals. We choose not to respond to these attacks except to strongly and explicitly disavow any and all hate speech, any and all violence as well as insinuations of violence, and any and all extreme and fringe elements that bring discredit to the Movement. We are a peaceful movement and respect other's opinions and views even though they do not agree with our own. We stand by these beliefs and goals and choose to focus our energies on ensuring that our government representatives do the same.

“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts.” --Abraham Lincoln

 “Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism.” --George Washington

10. MAINTAIN LOCAL INDEPENDENCE - The strength and resilience of a grassroots movement is the ability of citizens at the local level to determine their own platforms, agendas and priorities free of an overriding central leadership. Exercising the clearly stated message of the Movement by its nature involves discourse about which policies and candidates best hold to our stated principles, and these various opinions should flourish and evolve at the local level.

“Here sir, the people govern.” --Alexander Hamilton in a speech to the New York Ratifying Convention, 1788

“Every government degenerates when trusted to the rulers of the people alone. The people themselves, therefore, are its only safe depositories.” --Samuel Adams, 1781

“This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it.” --Abraham Lincoln

If you notice this platform has no social agenda.   There is no hate.  There is no abortion or anti-gay part to it.  This platform is simple and straight forward.   This platform seeks to avoid the perils of the influence of money and big business in politics.    Ask yourself is this a platform you could support?   If not, why?

This is the platform of a Movement call the Tea Party.   Today the Tea Party is more a Movement than a party.  It is a Movement that has been demonized by the Media as racist, anti-gay, radical, and violent.  Republican politicians, like Aiken, have attempted to use the title of Tea Party candidate to gain votes, but he does not represent the values represented here.  The Republican Establishment has attempted to keep them in check, but their influence has been undeniable.   The Republican Establishment silenced their voice at the Convention out of fear, fear they will upset the Establishment.

Both the Democrat and Republican Parties fear it.

All of that and yet the Movement prevails.  I have been to a Tea Party rally.  There was no talk of “legitimate rape”.  There was no racism.  No talk of hate or gays.  There was no violence.   What you did hear was talk of the Constitution, reducing the size and reach of government, and making America more prosperous for all.  

How many of you that think you know all about the Tea Party and think it is filled with bigots and have have been to a rally?  How many of you have read their platform before tonight?  I implore you to reset and take the opportunity to learn more about them if you agreed with their platform.

I believe this Movement can easily combine with large segments of the Democratic and Republican parties.    I believe the Libertarian and Constitution party will find a home here.   That is how a viable third party could look and how it could come to be in America.

That is my opinion and The Right Point Too!


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